Solo mining just for luck, realistic?
Just turned my attention to mining and the concepts are quite new to me. First of let me be clear: I realize that my hardware setup is far from ideal for mining. This is also the reason why I do not want to pool, I would simply provide a too small a share. I will be CPU mining at first, ASIC later on.
I would however like to test my luck. Mostly just for fun, I'm completely fine with the idea of never actually solving a block. I see it more as a lottery. I just want to confirm my idea so that I am not missing something: Do I have a chance of solving a block?
If a block is solved every 10 minutes, and the difficulty goes up continously. Do I even have the time to attempt a solution? I understand that the current work has to be abandoned when a block has been solved, rigth? Is there, for example, a lag here that yields my efforts useless?
What are the odds? Are the actually the % of my speed vs the network's?
Check this page: How soon might I expect to generate a block?
So with the current difficulty
510,929,738, and a 1Ghash/s mining rig (faster than your CPU) you'd do this math:
510929738 * Math.pow(2,32) / Math.pow(10,9) / 60 / 60 / 24 / 365
So to find a block at this difficulty with a 1Ghash mining rig it would take you about 69 years on average. Good Luck!
Where 69 years is the *expected time*, it could be much quicker with luck, but likely much longer because the difficulty its constantly increasing meanwhile.
As dam close as. Don't use your CPU, use the electric bill your running up to go buy lottery tickets instead, better odds.
Thank you, I think I will buy a USB Block Erupter just for fun. CPU is as you say, very useless.
you miss the point of the question really. What's the odds of a lottery buyer to win it? Maybe one in 10 million or something. Yet someone could buy only a couple of times and win it. Does everyone have to wait years to win it? Of course not. The math may say 69 years, but your luck might actually make that into a couple days. I think that's what OP is asking.